HeadcountOfficial figures and party statements, with their sources.
The chart shows past UK net migration, ONS projections and the OBR forecast.
2012 to 2031
One vertical axis measures people. Solid black shows past figures, dashed lines show projections, and a dotted line with circles shows the OBR forecast. The same numbers are in the tables below.
Past figures are for years ending in December. ONS projections and OBR points are for years ending in June.
The OBR chart axis is labelled Mid-year estimates, so its points are shown as years ending in June. The OBR text puts about 290,000 in 2030 while the chart labels that value 2031.
The OBR spreadsheet does not mark which points are past figures and which are forecasts.
provisional · 2025
| Year ending in December | Net migration · People | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 195,000 | no provisional or revised flag |
| 2013 | 244,000 | no provisional or revised flag |
| 2014 | 284,000 | no provisional or revised flag |
| 2015 | 303,000 | no provisional or revised flag |
| 2016 | 249,000 | no provisional or revised flag |
| 2017 | 208,000 | no provisional or revised flag |
| 2018 | 276,000 | no provisional or revised flag |
| 2019 | 184,000 | no provisional or revised flag |
| 2020 | 93,000 | no provisional or revised flag |
| 2021 | 467,000 | no provisional or revised flag |
| 2022 | 891,000 | no provisional or revised flag |
| 2023 | 848,000 | no provisional or revised flag |
| 2024 | 331,000 | revised |
| 2025 | 171,000 | provisional |
| Year ending in June | Net migration · People |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 204,000 |
| 2026 | 138,000 |
| 2027 | 230,000 |
| 2028 | 230,000 |
| 2029 | 230,000 |
| 2030 | 230,000 |
| Year ending in June | Net migration · People |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 204,000 |
| 2026 | 273,000 |
| 2027 | 455,000 |
| 2028 | 455,000 |
| 2029 | 455,000 |
| 2030 | 455,000 |
| Year ending in June | Net migration · People |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 204,000 |
| 2026 | 63,000 |
| 2027 | 105,000 |
| 2028 | 105,000 |
| 2029 | 105,000 |
| 2030 | 105,000 |
| Year ending in June | Net migration · People |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 0 |
| 2026 | 0 |
| 2027 | 0 |
| 2028 | 0 |
| 2029 | 0 |
| 2030 | 0 |
| Year ending in June | Net migration · People |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 204,000 |
| 2026 | 200,000 |
| 2027 | 203,400 |
| 2028 | 234,800 |
| 2029 | 253,900 |
| 2030 | 280,700 |
| 2031 | 290,000 |
Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025 (ONS) · 21 May 2026
National population projections: 2024-based · 28 April 2026
Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2026 · 3 March 2026
National population projections are not forecasts and do not predict international migration changes. They do not directly account for recent and future policy or economic changes. Assumptions for fertility, migration, and mortality are based on observed trends.
Bulletin, Section 1 Overview (notice box)
Variant projections are based on alternative assumptions of fertility, migration and mortality compared with the principal projection. These provide an indication of uncertainty in, and the outcomes of, alternative demographic assumptions but do not represent upper or lower limits of future demographic behaviour.
These published estimates each show their own measure, period and caveats.
These figures are not added together.
Producer
Home Office
Measure
Change in INFLOWS (immigration) per year. This is NOT a net migration estimate: the annex does not estimate emigration effects.
Period
per annum; no year or date of full effect is given in the annex
Period basis
annual (unspecified year)
Published
12 May 2025
White Paper · Technical annex PDF · Technical annex HTML
Given the caveats above, it is estimated that measures in the White Paper could reduce inflows by up to around 100,000 per annum.
Figures below are in people per year (change in inflows)
The analysis does not attempt to quantify the full impact of policy proposals given the uncertainty surrounding the details of implementation, such as timing, and the complexity of behavioural responses within the immigration system. The analysis focusses on a subset of the policy proposals where a quantitative assessment of the potential impact has been made, based on available information and indicative behavioural responses. It considers the number of migrants that might be in scope of those policy proposals and provides an initial, illustrative analysis for the potential impact on inflows. Where required, further analysis will be included within the relevant Impact Assessments accompanying the rule changes.
All impacts contained within this section are subject to considerable uncertainty and should be considered as order of magnitude estimates only.
Given the number of behavioural and other assumptions used to estimates these impacts, they should be considered to be indicative.
One caveat is not shown here because it continues as a list in the source. Every caveat is in the source. Source page
Producer
Home Office (with Department of Health and Social Care)
Measure
Change in NET MIGRATION (inflows less outflows that would otherwise have occurred), main applicants and dependants.
Period basis
UK financial years (April to March)
Published
9 December 2025
Assessment date
1 July 2025
Impact assessment · Statement of changes · Impact assessments collection
Table E.10.3 shows that the overall net migration impact of this package of policies is around -40,000 in 2027/28, rising to -54,000 in 2029/30 after restrictions on in-country care workers are introduced during the 2028/29 appraisal year.
Figures below are in thousand people (change in net migration)
In the context of the modelled annual reduction in net migration of around 70,000 in this IA, this equates to a reduction in GDP of between 0.35 per cent and 0.9 per cent.
The baseline is based on Home Office internal estimates of demand and should be considered as indicative.
Despite the use of ranges, the potential future volume of applicants who would have come to the UK in RQF 3 to 5 jobs and to work in care in the absence of these policy changes could reasonably be outside these ranges.
These volumes are reduced by 25 per cent in the low scenario and increased by 25 per cent in the high scenario to provide an illustrative range which accounts for uncertainty in future volumes.
As the Health and Care route, and access for Care Workers specifically have been open for fewer than five years, the outflow profile of Skilled Workers is used for all routes in this IA. This is a limitation and may over or underestimate the rate at which those on the Health and Care route may choose to remain in the UK longer term.
Producer
Home Office
Measure
Change in NET MIGRATION per policy, main applicants and dependants.
Period basis
UK financial years (April to March); appraisal period Q4 2025 to Q3 2030
Published
14 October 2025
Assessment date
14 October 2025
Impact assessment · Statement of changes · Impact assessments collection
Figures below are in people (change in net migration)
| Year | Change in net migration · People |
|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1,000 |
| 2026/27 | 7,000 |
| 2027/28 | 7,000 |
| 2028/29 | 6,000 |
| 2029/30 | 6,000 |
| Year | Change in net migration · People |
|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 2,000 |
| 2026/27 | 4,000 |
| 2027/28 | 1,000 |
| 2028/29 | 1,000 |
| 2029/30 | 1,000 |
| Year | Change in net migration · People |
|---|---|
| 2025/26 | −500 |
| 2026/27 | −2,000 |
| 2027/28 | −2,000 |
| 2028/29 | −2,000 |
| 2029/30 | −2,000 |
| Year | Change in net migration · People |
|---|---|
| 2025/26 | −500 |
| 2026/27 | −2,000 |
| 2027/28 | −1,000 |
| 2028/29 | −900 |
| 2029/30 | −800 |
| Year | Change in net migration · People |
|---|---|
| 2025/26 | −3,000 |
| 2026/27 | −10,000 |
| 2027/28 | −9,000 |
| 2028/29 | −8,000 |
| 2029/30 | −6,000 |
| Year | Change in net migration · People |
|---|---|
| 2025/26 | −1,000 |
| 2026/27 | −3,000 |
| 2027/28 | −4,000 |
| 2028/29 | −4,000 |
| 2029/30 | −2,000 |
Table 18 (page 38)
All estimates presented are indicative. The analysis serves to provide a sense of scale and estimated impacts should be read in that context; estimated future behaviour and outcomes are particularly uncertain.
However, all results, including calculated changes in the volumes of granted visas and NPSV estimates, should be treated with caution.
For simplicity, as this is not used in any subsequent modelling, these effects are grouped by policy change and are not split out by specific route, nor by main applicants and dependants.
Producer
Home Office
Measure
Reduction in VISAS ISSUED (Skilled Worker and Study, main applicants and dependants grouped). Not a net migration estimate.
Period basis
UK financial years
Published
6 March 2026
Assessment date
3 March 2026
Impact assessment · Statement of changes
However, the estimated reduction in immigration set out above is up to 4,300 Study visas prevented and 90 Skilled Worker visas during the 18-month period.
Figures below are in visas issued
Signs as published
In the absence of a direct evidence base to suggest what this proportion might be, an estimated 20 per cent deferred rate has been applied.
Each party’s statements appear in its own words with the same headings.
As at 28 September 2026 · Source page
“Figure given” means a number for the level of immigration or net migration. “Level stated in words, no number” means a level stated relative to zero. “No figure given” means neither was found in the documents checked.
Statements are selected with the same rule for every party.
No figure given
Immigration must be managed, but Alliance supports a compassionate, fair system and we have always opposed the ‘hostile environment’.
Alliance Party Westminster Manifesto 2024: Leading Change for Everyone Date on the cover July 2024
PDF page 29
Alliance Party Westminster Manifesto 2024: Leading Change for Everyone Date on the cover July 2024
No figure given
A future, where national, border, energy and food security are put first, not taken for granted, and immigration is never allowed to run out of control.
The Conservative and Unionist Party Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
PDF page 5
On 4 July, choose lower immigration, lower taxes and protected pensions.
The Conservative and Unionist Party Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
PDF page 5
Introduce a legal cap on migration to guarantee that numbers will fall every year, so public services are protected while bringing in the skills our businesses and NHS needs.
The Conservative and Unionist Party Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
PDF page 6
We must bring migration numbers down to sustainable levels to reduce the impacts on public services and housing and to restore public confidence in the system.
The Conservative and Unionist Party Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
PDF page 38
We need to control numbers and give the public confidence they will come down significantly.
The Conservative and Unionist Party Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
PDF page 39
We will introduce a binding, legal cap on migration, set on work and family visas so public services are protected whilst we bring the skills our businesses and the NHS needs.
The Conservative and Unionist Party Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
PDF page 39
Our cap will be set at a level that explicitly takes into account the costs and the benefits of migration.
The Conservative and Unionist Party Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
PDF page 39
The cap will fall every year of the next Parliament and cannot be breached.
The Conservative and Unionist Party Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
PDF page 39
We will give parliament an annual vote on the level of the cap so that the British people can have confidence that immigration numbers will be controlled.
The Conservative and Unionist Party Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
PDF page 39
I have committed to a cap on migration—why won’t he?
Hansard, Engagements 11 December 2024 Mrs Badenoch
Introducing an annual cap on migration – Ensuring migration levels are determined by the British people.
The BORDERS plan builds on announcements we have made in this area to date, including pledging to introduce a strict numerical cap on immigration, extending the length of time to claim citizenship, and setting strict conditions on anyone with Indefinite Leave to Remain.
The Conservative Party Plan to End Illegal Immigration (Conference 2025: Stronger Borders), the 'BORDERS plan' Linked from a page dated 5 October 2025
PDF page 3
A separate document setting out our plan to reduce legal immigration will be published later in the year.
The Conservative Party Plan to End Illegal Immigration (Conference 2025: Stronger Borders), the 'BORDERS plan' Linked from a page dated 5 October 2025
PDF page 3
We will introduce a binding annual cap on immigration so that only highly skilled workers will be able come to the UK.
Alternative King's Speech Announced on a page dated 11 May 2026
PDF page 28
The Bill will introduce a legally binding Parliament voted annual cap on migration, giving power back to Parliament.
Alternative King's Speech Announced on a page dated 11 May 2026
PDF page 29
This cap would be decided annually and ensure that the levels of migration are determined by the British people.
Alternative King's Speech Announced on a page dated 11 May 2026
PDF page 29
We will say more on cutting legal immigration in due course.
Our Plan to get Britain back on Track (Our Plan for Britain) No date shown
The Conservative and Unionist Party Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
Conservatives Introduce the 'Deportation Bill' 7 May 2025
The Conservative Party Plan to End Illegal Immigration (Conference 2025: Stronger Borders), the 'BORDERS plan' Linked from a page dated 5 October 2025
Alternative King's Speech Announced on a page dated 11 May 2026
Our Plan to get Britain back on Track (Our Plan for Britain) No date shown
No figure given
We remain committed to the aims of a firm, fair and controlled immigration system where the rules for those seeking to come to the United Kingdom are governed solely by our national parliament and are equally and fully applicable in all parts of the United Kingdom.
DUP General Election Manifesto 2024 (Making NI Work) Date on the cover June 2024
PDF page 33
We believe in immigration that is fair and controlled. That meets our economic needs, but that does not overwhelm our frontline services or disadvantage our own working-class communities.
Leader's Speech - Conference 2025 23 September 2025
DUP General Election Manifesto 2024 (Making NI Work) Date on the cover June 2024
Leader's Speech - Conference 2025 23 September 2025
No figure given
No qualifying statement in the documents checked.
Real Hope. Real Change. The Green Party's Manifesto for a Fairer, Greener Country (long version) Date on the cover 2024
No figure given
The overall level must be properly controlled and managed.
Change: Labour Party Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
PDF page 41
So, Labour will reduce net migration.
Change: Labour Party Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
PDF page 41
Controlling migration is a reasonable goal.
PM Keir Starmer's Speech at Labour Party Conference 2025 Date of the page 30 September 2025
You will see NHS Waiting times coming down further… Wages still rising faster than prices… Immigration still falling… And bit by bit – you will see a country… That no longer feels the burden of decline… Or the sense that things can never get better… A Britain with its confidence and its future – back.
A Britain Built for All: The Prime Minister's speech 1st December 2025 Date of the page 1 December 2025
Change: Labour Party Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
PM Keir Starmer's Speech at Labour Party Conference 2025 Date of the page 30 September 2025
A Britain Built for All: The Prime Minister's speech 1st December 2025 Date of the page 1 December 2025
Secure borders (labour.org.uk, 'Plan for Change') No date shown
Prime Minister and Leader of the Labour Party Keir Starmer's speech in Central London (11 May) Date of the page 11 May 2026
No figure given
I know that the Prime Minister is rightly seeking to reduce immigration from the record highs of the Conservatives, but does he agree that if people like this want to come to our country—to bring their money and their skills, so that we can grow our economy and pay for our public services—they should be able to?
Hansard, Engagements 15 January 2025 Ed Davey
For a Fair Deal: Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
Restoring safety, order and fairness to our asylum system 18 August 2026
No figure given
Plaid Cymru does not support open borders or uncontrolled migration.
For Wales: Plaid Cymru Manifesto for the Senedd Election 2026 No date shown in the data
PDF page 62
With devolved powers over migration we could deliver a fair, rules-based system of controlled migration that works for Wales, reflects our needs, and upholds our values.
For Wales: Plaid Cymru Manifesto for the Senedd Election 2026 No date shown in the data
PDF page 62, 63
For Fairness, For Ambition, For Wales: Plaid Cymru Manifesto for the Westminster General Election 2024 No date shown in the data
For Wales: Plaid Cymru Manifesto for the Senedd Election 2026 No date shown in the data
Level stated in words, no number
Net Negative Immigration
Our Policies (reformparty.uk/policies) No date shown
We will freeze immigration and stop the boats.
Reform UK: Our Contract with You Date in the page footers 2024
PDF page 2
All non-essential immigration frozen to boost wages, protect public services, end the housing crisis and cut crime.
Reform UK: Our Contract with You Date in the page footers 2024
PDF page 4
Strict limits on immigration are the only way to relieve the pressure on our housing, public services, increase wages and protect our culture, identity and values.
Reform UK: Our Contract with You Date in the page footers 2024
PDF page 5
Reform UK will ensure that people can own their own home by unleashing housebuilding across the country and cutting immigration.
Reform UK: Our Contract with You Date in the page footers 2024
PDF page 17
Reform UK will end the scam of mass immigration and finally put British citizens first.
Our Policies (reformparty.uk/policies) No date shown
Reform UK: Our Contract with You Date in the page footers 2024
Operation Restoring Justice: Our plan to deport all illegal migrants in the UK, and secure our borders Date on the cover August 2025
Reform UK Welsh manifesto (English version) No date shown in the data
Reform UK: The Cost of the Boriswave (policy page title 'Stop The Boriswave') No date shown in the data
Operation Fortress: Stopping the Invasion of Britain No date shown
The First 100 Days: Our Pledges to You No date shown
Our Policies (reformparty.uk/policies) No date shown
No figure given
In order to avert this, Restore Britain will reverse mass immigration.
Reverse Mass Immigration. 13 February 2026
If that means millions go, then millions go.
Reverse Mass Immigration. 13 February 2026
Restore Britain won’t just end it – we will reverse it.
Reverse Mass Immigration. 13 February 2026
Reverse Mass Immigration. 13 February 2026
No figure given
We will initiate a programme to encourage more people to move to Scotland, initially focused on key target business growth sectors.
On Scotland's Side: SNP Manifesto 2026 (plain text version) No date shown in the data
PDF page 39
A Future Made in Scotland: SNP General Election Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
On Scotland's Side: SNP Manifesto 2026 (plain text version) No date shown in the data
No figure given
No qualifying statement in the documents checked.
Strong Leadership, Positive Change: Westminster Election 2024 Sinn Féin Manifesto No date shown in the data
No figure given
No qualifying statement in the documents checked.
SDLP Manifesto Westminster 2024 No date shown in the data
No figure given
Freeze Non-Essential Immigration.
Restore the Union: TUV Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
PDF page 13
Strict limits on immigration are the only way to relieve the pressure on our housing, public services, increase wages and protect our culture, identity and values.
Restore the Union: TUV Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
PDF page 13
Restore the Union: TUV Manifesto 2024 No date shown in the data
No figure given
No qualifying statement in the documents checked.
Ulster Unionist Party 2024 Westminster Manifesto: Making Northern Ireland Work No date shown in the data
No figure given
No qualifying statement in the documents checked.